Late last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that predicts a 40 percent displace in Arctic sea ice by the year 2050 and it was followed by a in the arctic and antarctic respectively. The posts invited (and indeed received) some intelligent address regarding the air of global climate change and the study of sea ice coverage both via comments and email and I am so very thankful this can be a forum for respectful and intelligent discussion - I truly wish that ordain continue here on a be of issues related to defy and climate. One evince I've noticed that tends to be an abrasive choice of words in command public discussion is "natural cycles," sometimes used when referring to climate change and to global warming.
The call "natural cycles" seems to have change state synonymous with "denial that humans are influencing global warming." I be to act a minute to explain the call "natural cycles" and clarify why we as an ever more educated public should not only be accepting of the term but truly embrace it as a normal part of climate dress. Note once again that this does NOT mean I'm suggesting those with strong beliefs on the influence of humans in climate dress abandon such beliefs - but instead suggesting that we as a society be open to the idea of natural cycles which are for lack of a exceed call quite natural!
believe the planet Earth - a celestial be that is constantly in move and a composite of solids liquids gases flora and fauna that are constantly interacting with one another. Next consider the sun - a dynamic roll of gas also always in move. These erupting pulsing metamorphosizing bodies have been in existence for literally billions of years - the hide for example is some four billion years young. Over the course of those four billion years there undergo been major changes from the composite of the earth's ascend to the gases that the atmosphere is comprised of. There have of course also been changes in weather and climate which have seemingly accelerated in recent decades.
Next consider phrases like "on preserve" that we comprehend almost daily - "the hottest pass on record," "the coldest pass on record," "the most come down in 24 hours ever on preserve," "the most tropical cyclones ever recorded," and so forth. What does this refer to and what does it convey? To answer this most simply the phrase "on preserve" means that we as a human go have never recorded an event of such magnitude in that particular location.. at least not in records that we know are accessible. So the "hottest day on preserve" for a particular city is the hottest day ever recorded for that particular site.
An important follow-up question though is "how far back does the preserve keeping go?" For example records at an old station like Boston date back to the late 1800s (though the observing site has changed a be of times) while records at a younger station like Rutland. VT or Manchester. NH only date back to the lay 1900s. As a prove a "preserve hot" day in Manchester may not be a "preserve hot" day in Boston at all - or change surface close! We saw this measure week when both Rutland and Manchester challenged their preserve highs in the lower 90s while Boston came nowhere come the preserve high of 102. Records it turns out are relative.
Now bear on this understanding to something like the record minimum ice coverage reported in the Arctic or the preserve maximum ice coverage reported in the Antarctic. Yes this makes a statement of how quickly ice is diminishing in the north and building in the south but can we say that it's the least amount of ice EVER on the North Pole or the greatest be EVER in the South impel? Of course not! Sea ice coverage for example is observed via satellites and good records began in 1979. On an hide four billion years in age (granted water and ice haven't been around all four billion of those years so for the sake of argument let's make it only a billion years) how much time is represented in a 28 year window from 1979 to 2007? Obviously the amount of time is laughably small. Looking at temperature records for an old station desire Boston yields 120 years - more time than the air preserve but still an invisible time in the measure of the earth. Looking at temperature records in Europe give a bring together of hundred years of data in a few select spots - how does that be up against a billion years? You get the point here.
Now bear on this to the phrase "natural cycles." In recent posts. I've asked the change state ended question of whether records - and more importantly computer models that guess the global climate and are run based on these records - are really reliable in an assessment of the hide. I asked isn't it possible that sea ice temperature ocean temperature tropical cyclones and other phenomenon direct in cycles of activity that on a four billion year old planet always in move we couldn't change surface begin to understand? Perhaps we are in a natural cycle of warming at the Arctic and cooling at the Antarctic. Perhaps we are seeing solar flux from the sun that is contributing. Perhaps there are natural fluctuations in ocean salinity and temperature that play a major role. None of these suggestions are far-fetched and you can sight intelligent scientists who give and lay out against the existence of such cycles.
Whether you find any of those arguments from said scientists convincing or not though one must adjudge that on a four billion year old planet our available records are a small fraction of measure. It's also important to construe this affix in the change by reversal context - I'm NOT making an argument that human influences are non-existent in the global warming arena nor is that what I wish any of you my readers will believe. Rather as we explore the changes and curiosities of the world around us in an ongoing examine for information. I urge us all to keep in object the state of move our planet and all celestial bodies are in and at least act an change state mind through it all to the possibility that some of these changes *may* be beyond our aim of understanding given our lack of insight and knowledge of what happened before recorded history.
So the next measure you hear about how the world has recorded the hottest global temperature in history ask. "how long is that historical record and is it really representative of the age of this planet?" Then take a step to reduce your carbon footprint please - because after all this isn't a post intended to be food for skepticism on whether pollutants are harming the environment or whether humans are contributing to climate change but rather a affix to encourage thinking outside the mainstream spoonfed information that tells us unprecedented things are taking displace on our planet almost daily.
What are your thoughts on this affix? Did I do an effective job of conveying what "natural cycles" are? Do you have something to add? Were you able to read the affix without feeling desire it was just written by another skeptic spouting off (I assure you that's not the setup here but I'd be interested to experience if anyone reacts to it as such)? I'd be interested to see your thoughts in the comments section.. perhaps not necessarily on human input to global warming (we'll tackle that some other measure) but moreover on the principle of natural cycles and the idea that there may be.
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Related article:
http://www.mattnoyes.net/matt_noyes_weather_blog/2007/09/climate-change-.html
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